COVID-19

Bear Markets: S&P 500 in Historical Perspective

Michael Data & Graphics, Photo, Photo editing May 4, 2020

It’s quite a sight to witness the stock market dropping by 35% in 33 days (S&P 500) thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, beating the 1929 record in velocity with a drop of 45% in 58 days. See slide 6 and 12:

Notes:

  • The red bars indicate the S&P 500 peak and trough prices during the bear markets, background reading by James A. Kostohryz on seekingalpha.com
  • Top image from morningstar.com by Paul D. Kaplan [The chart shows that over this period of almost 150 years, $1 (in 1870 U.S. dollars) invested in a hypothetical U.S. stock market index in 1871 would have grown to $15,303 by the end of March 2020.]
  • Slide 12 might be a work in progress…

Coronavirus graphs: taming the COVID-19 curves

Michael Data & Graphics, Interactive March 14, 2020

Predicting when we will be heading out of the woods is the most unreliable business in this trying time. These graphs and map below are what a lot of us are watching daily while preparing to reopen society. They may also be good materials for historians and museums.

NYC cases mapped (every 5 days)

Data source:

Apex modeling for New York

Data sources:

Notes/disclaimers:

  • NYC data cycles from 5/6pm to 5/6pm the following day, so the two sets of data between NYS and NYC might be slightly out of sync.
  • NYC’s newly reported “probably deaths” are not included in the graphs here.
  • There are some data gaps in the Hubei-Wuhan datasets.
  • On April 17, China revised Wuhan’s toll from COVID-19 up by 50%; so take the data with a grain of salt!

NYTimes: Lung X-rays 1-2-3:

Don’t kid yourself thinking statistics are on your side, even though you don’t belong to the vulnerable populations. Read this harrowing roller-coaster experience of an athletic father of three in Mass. He almost died, see X-ray image 2 below with his lungs in total whiteout. Kudos to The New York Times. Worth remembering: your chance of surviving COVID-19 if you get it is 1/2 – either you make it or you don’t.

Mr. Bello’s lungs on March 14, his first X-ray at Massachusetts General Hospital. The white space indicates areas of his lungs that were filled with fluid and inflammatory cells.Credit…via Massachusetts General Hospital
Mr. Bello’s lungs on March 27, a complete “whiteout,” in which his lungs are hardly visible. Some doctors at Mass General said this was one of the worst chest X-rays they had ever seen.Credit…via Massachusetts General Hospital
Mr. Bello’s chest X-ray on April 8, the lungs visible again, indicating his system was clearing.Credit…via Massachusetts General Hospital

Emotional moments from the web