Predicting when we will be heading out of the woods is the most unreliable business in this trying time. These graphs and map below are what a lot of us are watching daily while preparing to reopen society. They may also be good materials for historians and museums.

NYC cases mapped (every 5 days)

Data source:

• NYC Department of Health’s datasets on github

Apex modeling for New York

Data sources:

• NYS Department of Health; forward.ny.gov
• NYC Department of Health
• China: IPE database on COVID-19
• Additional data from Wuhan University (paywall)

Notes/disclaimers:

• NYC data cycles from 5/6pm to 5/6pm the following day, so the two sets of data between NYS and NYC might be slightly out of sync.
• NYC’s newly reported “probably deaths” are not included in the graphs here.
• There are some data gaps in the Hubei-Wuhan datasets.
• On April 17, China revised Wuhan’s toll from COVID-19 up by 50%; so take the data with a grain of salt!

NYTimes: Lung X-rays 1-2-3:

Don’t kid yourself thinking statistics are on your side, even though you don’t belong to the vulnerable populations. Read this harrowing roller-coaster experience of an athletic father of three in Mass. He almost died, see X-ray image 2 below with his lungs in total whiteout. Kudos to The New York Times. Worth remembering: your chance of surviving COVID-19 if you get it is 1/2 – either you make it or you don’t.

Emotional moments from the web